VEGAS MYTHS RE-BUSTED: Slot Machines Can Be Due

• Gambling News
• 21 March 2025

A prevalent myth on the casino floor is that a slot machine is more likely to win a jackpot after a long period without one, since it is “due.” Observe any crowded slot area and you’ll probably notice players engaging in a game of musical chairs, trying to determine which machine will potentially give a big payout next. 

“Nothing could be farther from the truth,” Anthony F. Lucas, a professor of casino management at UNLV and former gaming industry operations analyst, told Casino.org. “Every possible jackpot has the same programmed chance of occurring on every spin. There is absolutely no cumulative memory of previous spins or any kind of elimination of possible outcomes on any single spin.”

411 regarding the 7-7-7 

Each slot machine in all US casinos is essentially a video game, known as a virtual reel, with outcomes governed by a microprocessor. That microprocessor includes an algorithm for a random number generator that decides the result of every spin. 

That algorithm is set by the slot-machine maker to ensure that no operator can change it to dispense winnings randomly. Launched in 1986 by slot manufacturer International Gaming Technology, this technology is now everywhere. Even positions that seem outdated utilize it. This is due to the fact that all slot machines are mandated by law to keep auditing data that traditional mechanical machines could not monitor. 

According to Lucas, slot outcomes aren't truly random since certain symbols are less likely to appear compared to others. "However, they're randomized," he clarified. "The odds remain unchanged." They do not alter. "The chances of winning a jackpot on any single spin remain constant." 

Thus, as irrational as it appears, playing a machine just one spin after it awarded a million-dollar jackpot to another player offers you the identical odds of winning a million-dollar jackpot as that fortunate player previously had. 

“Most people just can’t seem to accept this psychologically,” Lucas said. In fact, this faulty logic has proven disadvantageous to some slot operators in the past. For example, if a regular player enters a bar in Nevada, which is limited by law to 15 machines, and sees a progressive jackpot set to its lowest value, say $10,000, they will know it has just been reset because of a recent jackpot. And they will be more likely to leave that bar to play somewhere where they think the machines favor a jackpot more.

“To combat this perception, many neighborhood bars use hidden meters,” Lucas said. “They divert a little piece of every coin to a meter that no one can see. So if the progressive jackpot hits at $14,000, it will reset to something like $12,510 instead of $10,000, courtesy of this secret sum it’s accumulated.”

Wheel of Illusion 

Since players who think they can gain a lucky edge are more inclined to play, slot manufacturers assist operators in exploiting this human reasoning flaw in every possible manner. 

In reality, the whole experience of engaging with a video slot machine is a trick where the symbols appear in real time before the player, similar to how they did on older electro-mechanical machines. 

“But all the symbols you will see come up were already locked in when you hit the spin button,” Lucas said. “The random number generator is always running, even when the game isn’t playing. Hitting the spin button stops it and instantaneously determines the symbols that will appear. The symbols spinning and stopping on the video screen is just a façade.”

Therefore, tug the lever of the slot machine rather than pressing the button as much as you'd like. Lucas states that this will impact the result just as much as pressing an elevator call button multiple times, “However, you frequently observe individuals tapping the screen and engaging in various antics to attempt to sway the result.” 

The virtual wheel is also crafted to mislead players into believing that their chances of winning are higher than they actually are. Lucas stated: “You might think, ‘That wheel likely has around 20 stops or something similar.’” There are three spools. Thus, if there is one jackpot symbol on every reel, that totals 20 cubed. Therefore, I should have a one-in-8,000 probability of winning the jackpot, correct? 

“Wrong. Because on a virtual reel, instead of having 20 stops, slot manufacturers can make it 50 or 100, giving them considerable leeway in determining the likelihood of the jackpot as long as each spin provides the same randomized chance of hitting it.”

The One Way Slots Are Fixed 

According to Lucas, one method that slot machines are manipulated is by consistently providing the house a typical financial edge over time. "While I wouldn’t describe it as rigged, that seems too severe." 

According to Nevada law, a casino's edge must not go beyond 25%. However, in the majority of instances, Lucas states that it ranges from 4% to 10% on reel slots. A house edge of 10% indicates that the operator will keep a "vig" of $10 from each $100 bet placed, on average, over time. These percentages are set at the factory and presented to operators as choices with every machine sold. 

Operators have an incentive to keep secret which of their slots offers higher payouts or more frequent wins, as no one would choose to play the less profitable machines. 

Playing the slots, similar to all forms of gambling, creates an experience that encourages mystical thoughts. 

“In fact, it rewards that kind of thinking,” Lucas said. “It goes to the psychology of the gambler in general. Casinos sell two things, hope and variance in the game. You put a dollar in and you could easily win $100,000. That’s the variance and the hope coming together.

“But, of course, it’s rarely the reality.”