How Are Betting Markets Shifting in the Election of a New Pope?

• Gambling News
• 06 May 2025

Might we witness an American pope for the first time? If you’re monitoring the betting markets, those odds are quite lengthy. 

Confidential Vote 

The College of Cardinals will begin convening in conclave – the confidential election to select the next Pope – tomorrow in the 15th Century Sistine Chapel. 

The process includes 133 cardinals, each younger than 80, who discuss and subsequently cast their votes for the candidate of their choice. A pope is elected solely when a candidate obtains a two-thirds majority. 

We might witness a new leader of the Catholic Church in a matter of hours or weeks. 

A brief look at the betting markets today reveals some distinct frontrunners. 

Wagering Markets for New Pope 

In the U.S., betting on the next Pope is not allowed, but in Canada it's permitted. BetMGM lists Pietro Parolin of Italy (the Vatican's secretary of state) as the favorite at +225, with Luis Antonio Tagle (“the Asian Pope Francis”) from the Philippines next at +300, and Matteo Maria Zuppi, also Italian, at +600. 

Raymond Leo Burke has the lowest odds of any American Cardinal, sitting at +3300, with Timothy Dolan and Kevin Farrell both at +5000. 

As stated by John Ewing of BetMGM:

"Of note, Pietro Parolin opened as a +250 favorite. He has moved to +225 and 23.3% of bets (most) and 32.4% of money (most) is on Parolin to be the next Pope.”

What Do the Prediction Markets Indicate? 

David Merry, a trader at BetVictor, stated: “Pope betting has gained traction in the UK, but there have been no bets yet from Canada." So far, support has been given to thirty different Cardinals. Peter Turkson is the leading contender, who began at 10/1 and is currently at 11/2. We impose a £20 limit on stakes, thus allowing only small wagers. 

At the prediction markets this afternoon on Polymarket, it’s a tight race: Parolin has a 26% likelihood with a volume of 1.19 million, Tagle follows at 23% (volume of 1.4 million), and Zuppi stands at 10% (volume of 865,889). 

At Kalshi, Parolin is at 26%, Tagle is at 22%, and Zuppi is at 10%.