UFC 316: Underdog Sean O’Malley is Attracting Lots of Money

• Gambling News
• 29 May 2025

The UFC's schedule for June is full, featuring two major PPV events and three smaller UFC Fight Night events; however, don’t mention to Johnny Avello from DraftKings that there’s fatigue among bettors regarding the mixed martial arts organization. 

On the contrary, stated Avello, a member of the Sports Betting Hall of Fame, a Las Vegas bookmaker, and the race & sportsbook director at DraftKings. 

“We’re not seeing fatigue,” he said. “This all started back during COVID. That’s when UFC said we’re just going to fill our slate because there’s not a lot of events going on. So, we’re going to get a lot of eyes on this product. UFC has been a good product; we’re seeing growth in it. We’re projecting a bigger handle this year than we did last year. And we just see all systems go.”

Dvalishvili Favored to Win 

The action begins on June 7 with UFC 316 at the Prudential Center located in Newark, NJ. 

“[That fight] kicks off six weeks of a great summer of UFC fighting,” Avello said. “It’s going to be a blockbuster summer in terms of handle on these fights.”

The primary card for UFC 316 at the Prudential Center features a bantamweight championship fight between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley, a rematch from last September, with Dvalishvili holding the title. Dvalishvili won the previous bout by unanimous decision (the Georgian delivered 214 total strikes, while O’Malley managed 49). 

O’Malley stands as the strong underdog in the UFC betting odds at DraftKings for June 7, listed at +250. Dvalishvili is -310. 

“They’re betting O’Malley in the rematch,” Avello said. “And when we look at the third fight, that’s no surprise that they’re betting him because we had a pretty good liability on O’Malley as the favorite in the first one.

"As far as who’s taking it, everybody’s jumping on the +250. There are reasons to bet O’Malley.”

Avello mentioned O’Malley’s remarks regarding how the lights at the Las Vegas Sphere in September hindered his ability to land punches and affected his performance, a concern Dvalishvili has dismissed. 

Money is on O’Malley

“We like the position we’re in,” Avello said. “We don’t mind them [bettors] taking the dog there.”

The card on June 7 includes a women's bantamweight title fight between Julianna Pena (the reigning champion, at +455) and Kayla Harrison (-625). 

UFC 317 will take place in Las Vegas on June 28 at T-Mobile Arena, featuring Ilia Topuria against Charles Oliveira in a lightweight championship fight, which became vacant when Islam Makhachev, the top-ranked UFC fighter, relinquished his lightweight title to step up to welterweight for a second belt against Jack Della Maddalena. 

No sport combines sensationalism, WWE-style character promotion, and controversy like the UFC, and when you add in the significant athleticism and mental resilience necessary to perform at a top level, that’s what reliably attracts the audience. 

Sharps Impacting the Line

“If you’re watching a game, it’s great entertainment. Sports betting is great entertainment,” Avello said. “It’s nice to have a wager … only now, watch the game and bet prematch, or bet during the match, during each game. So, as things change during the game, if you got a feel of how the games going, you can actually put down a wager throughout the entire event.”

When it comes to establishing odds for UFC fights, Avello mentioned that much of the effort involves assessing the fighter's career stage: some are improving, others are declining – their fighting duration and skill level also play a role. 

Public Perception vs. Fighter Data

“There’s quite a bit that goes into it,” said Avello. “We’ve got a team that does follow this exclusively, whether it’s UFC or boxing, and that team does a really good job of getting those opening numbers up and getting them pretty correct.

“Once that initial line is established and put up, then it’s up to the general public, the sharps [professional bettors], whoever’s wagering to put their opinion into it. Of course, if you’ve got sharp bettors betting, the line will move accordingly. And then sometimes, once we get to a point where we feel it’s pretty stable and we’re getting action on both sides, then it kind of holds at that number.”